ATP Tour previews and best bets for events in Bucharest, Marrakech and Houston

The ATP Tour heads onto the clay this week and Andy Schooler returns to preview the tournaments in Bucharest, Marrakech and Houston.Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour1pt e.w. Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Tiriac Open at 16/1 (General)0.5pt e.w. Francisco Comesana in the Tiriac Open at 20/1 (General)1pt e.w. Roberto Carballes Baena in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 14/1 (General)1pt e.w. Jaume Munar in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 12/1 (Betfred)1pt e.w. Daniel Galan in the Fayez Sarofim & Co US Clay Court Championship at 25/1 (General)Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair SportsbookTiriac OpenBucharest, Romania (outdoor clay)When the ATP Tour returned to Bucharest last season, this column tipped the winner, Marton Fucsovics, at 20/1.Twelve months on and I think it might be worth looking at that area of the market again.After the names came out of the hat on Saturday, it was pretty easy to produce my first conclusion – namely that the draw is top heavy.It’s led by top seed Sebastian Baez, the Rio champion and Santiago runner-up during the South American ‘Golden Swing’ in February.He looks the right favourite, but it won’t be easy.This section also includes the second and third favourites – and Laslo Djere and Mariano Navone actually meet in the first round.There’s also defending champ Fucsovics and fourth seed Nicolas Jarry in the top half, although the man I feel might be worth a small punt is 20/1 shot FRANCISCO COMESANA.He was something of an eyecatcher during that claycourt Golden Swing last month.The Argentine beat both Alex Zverev and the aforementioned Jarry en route to the semi-finals in Rio, and when the action moved on to Santiago, he pushed Baez all the way, only losing 7-6 in the final set.That’s notable as the compatriots could meet again here in the last eight.Comesana has played a lot of his tennis back in South America but one of his multiple Challenger Tour titles of last year came in Europe – Oeiras in Portugal to be precise – and I’d expect him to be well suited to the slow conditions on offer this week.However, as you may have already figured out, my main bet in Bucharest comes in the opposite half of the draw.The odds suggest Pedro Martinez will be the man to reach the final.The Spaniard is a 12/1 shot which immediately shows there’s some each-way potential somewhere in this half.Martinez has fallen away somewhat after his semi-final appearance in Buenos Aires. As for the other seeds, number three Flavio Cobolli is just 2-7 for the season so far, while number six Fabian Marozsan has also been below his best of late. He was forced to withdraw with an injured ankle in Indian Wells and then lost in round one in Miami.For me, the standout price here is the 16/1 on offer about CAMILO UGO CARABELLI.He was another breakout star during the South American swing.The Argentine kicked it off by winning the Challenger title in Rosario and then converted that strong form into main-tour wins as he reached the last four in both Rio and Santiago.More recently, he would have been pleased to win two hardcourt matches at the Miami Open, including taking down seed Alex Michelsen, and so he should arrive in Europe – where he made two Challenger finals in 2024 – with confidence high.He looks well drawn here and certainly worthy of support.Grand Prix Hassan IIMarrakech, Morocco (outdoor clay)With Marrakech located in the foothills of the Atlas Mountains, there’s altitude in play at this tournament.The balls tend to fly quicker through the thinner air and can be more difficult to control.That’s awkward for some players; others thrive in such conditions.One player who fits the latter bracket is ROBERTO CARBALLES BAENA and you only have to look at his record here to see that.The Spaniard was the champion in Marrakech two years ago and last season returned to final before losing to Matteo Berrettini. He was also a quarter-finalist in 2022 and now holds a 12-3 win-loss record in the main draw at this venue.Those are the sort of numbers which help offset some disappointing form of late and a return to these conditions looks exactly what the doctor ordered for RCB.Starting against wild card Taha Baadi with the winner of Daniel Altmaier and Otto Virtanen to follow, Carballes Baena looks to have the chance to ease his way into the tournament.At the quarter-final stage, he could face favourite Nuno Borges but the Portuguese’s lack of experience in such conditions is noticeable. He’s never played here before, or in Munich, Gstaad or Kitzbuhel – some of the other European claycourt events that are played well above sea level.I prefer to side with the player who revels in such conditions and one who is a considerably bigger price.Lorenzo Sonego is the other big name on this side of the draw, but only one of his six tour finals has come on clay, while the Italian has really struggled since his quarter-final run at the Australian Open and he’s now lost six of his last eight matches. I’m happy to swerve.On the other side of the draw, JAUME MUNAR looks the one to back.Clay is his natural domain but the Spaniard has been impressing on hardcourts this season, only last week beating Daniil Medvedev in Miami. There have also been semi-final runs in both Dallas and Hong Kong.He’s a former quarter-finalist in Marrakech where he’s defeated Alex Zverev in the past, and last year he pushed Berrettini harder than anyone here, losing 6-3 in a final set.In terms of altitude performance elsewhere, Munar has reached the last four In Kitzbuhel, while on the Challenger Tour he reached the Bad Waltersdorf final last season and won in San Marino in 2023.In short, I have no qualms about backing him here.Alexandre Muller could be an awkward foe in the quarter-finals, although Munar has beaten him three times our of four on clay, while top seed Tallon Griekspoor is also in this section.However, it’s worth noting that the Dutchman, who has played well this season, has never won three matches in a row on clay at tour level, never mind the four he’ll need to lift the trophy here, while he was also forced out of Miami recently due to an ankle injury.That’s not something you want to be worrying about as you try to perfect the sliding movement required on a claycourt and I’m happy to take on Griekspoor here.Fayez Sarofim & Co US Clay Court ChampionshipHouston, USA (outdoor clay)This may be listed as a claycourt event but punters should note this is not your regular South American or European red dirt.Instead, the courts here play much faster and that’s reflected by the roll of honour which reads like something you would expect to find at Queen’s Club or Eastbourne.Ben Shelton, Reilly Opelka, John Isner, Jack Sock, Andy Roddick and Ivo Karlovic have all won here. Need I go on?It might make sense to try to find someone of a similar profile but there aren’t too many big servers in the 2025 field with Shelton not defending his title and Opelka also absent.Some will take a chance on Frances Tiafoe, the 2023 winner and last season’s beaten finalist, but he’s been disappointing this season and that was summed up by how he lost to Arthur Fils in Miami. Having saved match points in the second set and gone a break up in the third against an ailing opponent, he crumbled and looks a player lacking confidence at the moment.Brandon Nakashima is another with a strong serve, who could make waves, while top seed Tommy Paul will also be aiming to strike for the home nation.However, the world number 13 has a pretty miserable 2-4 record at this tournament – and one of the wins came via a retirement. Frankly, I’d want more than 7/2.I’ve never been a big fan of this event but I’m going to take a chance of a player at a big price and that’s DANIEL GALAN.The Colombian has played exclusively on clay since the Australian Open – and largely at Challenger Tour level.However, he’s been winning a lot – 17-6 since leaving Melbourne – and will surely bring plenty of confidence to the table this week.That run has taken in claycourt Challenger titles in Punta del Este and Santiago, the latter coming in fairly fast conditions given the altitude in play in the Chilean capital.Nearly everyone else in this field is coming off the hardcourts so I’m hoping Galan’s decision to focus on the surface he loves will reap dividends this week.He’s a former semi-finalist at this event and a decent draw has him in the same quarter as Nakashima, whose poor returning often lets him down, and the injury-prone Kei Nishikori, who doesn’t look a player capable of backing up match after match any more.At 25/1, Galan looks worth a try here.Posted at 1920 GMT on 30/03/25Safer gamblingWe are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.